Is the financial independence (FI) number a myth?

The standard “FI number” — the single net-worth target you save toward and then stop working — is a useful shortcut but a fragile one. The framework treats financial independence as a finish line. In practice it’s a moving target, and the two forces that move it are predictable: inflation and your own life.

Inflation alone moves the target every year. Someone who hit their FI number in 2019 using a 4% safe-withdrawal assumption has watched their actual spending power erode significantly since. BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey data shows the average American household’s annual spending has climbed steadily, and that’s true even for retirees on fixed budgets. A static FI number from five years ago almost always underestimates what you need today.

Lifestyle creep moves it from the other side. As income rises — through raises, promotions, rental cash flow, or investment gains — spending tends to rise with it. The BiggerPockets episode argues that most FI-chasers hit their number, feel financially free for a few months, then unconsciously expand their lifestyle until they don’t feel free anymore. The number never delivered what it promised, because the target kept moving.

A more durable frame is cash-flow-based: target the monthly passive income you actually need to cover your lifestyle, not a net-worth round number. Cash flow tells you what your money can do for you right now, regardless of how markets are priced. A $1.5M portfolio generating $5K/month of reliable cash flow is more useful as a planning number than “I have $1.5M” — because the cash flow adjusts as your cost of living adjusts.

The practical workflow is to revisit the target every year, not celebrate crossing it once. Pull your last 12 months of actual spending, adjust for known life changes (kids, mortgage pay-off, healthcare shifts), and re-derive the monthly cash flow you need. The number will move. That’s not failure — that’s the system working.

This isn’t an argument against saving aggressively or building passive income. It’s an argument against treating any single net-worth figure as the finish line. Financial independence is a cash-flow condition, not a balance-sheet one.